Panic Mode Activated

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Good morning, The economy is uncertain, business deals are slowing down, big oil companies are making changes, and AI is now controlling what we think—just another typical day.

Grab your coffee, the chaos isn’t slowing down!

ECONOMY
Consumers lose faith

Consumer confidence in future economic conditions just plunged to its lowest level since the Great Recession era—a red flag that recession fears are hardening.

Why are Americans suddenly so pessimistic about the road ahead? While the Conference Board’s current conditions index dipped 7.2 points to 92.9 in March, the future expectations gauge collapsed 9.6 points to 65.2—a 12-year low far below the 80 threshold that historically signals looming recession.

The numbers reveal a grim shift: Only 37.4% of consumers expect stock prices to rise in the next year—a 10-point nosedive from February and the first negative reading since late 2023. Even more alarming? Just 16.7% anticipate more job opportunities (down from 18.8%), while 28.5% fear fewer jobs (up from 26.6%). “Worries about the economy have started to infect consumers’ view of their own wallets,” warns Conference Board economist Stephanie Guichard—a critical tipping point. Imagine planning a family budget or career move in this climate. Trump’s tariff threats and market volatility are colliding with ageing Americans’ anxieties—those 55+ drove the confidence collapse—while younger households brace for ripple effects. Even the “wealth effect” from stocks, a longtime economic driver, is fading fast.

Watch April’s jobs report and Fed meetings closely. With recession alarms blaring and tariff policies looming, the next 90 days could determine whether this pessimism becomes self-fulfilling—or if policymakers can steady the ship. One thing’s clear: When only 1 in 6 Americans expect job growth, the economic weathervane is pointing stormward.

MORE TO KNOW
Deals dry up

Wall Street’s hiring boom may be coming to an end, with major banks bracing for more layoffs as deal activity stalls. Investment banking fees have dropped 6.3% to $16.83 billion this year, while U.S. equity offerings fell from $69 billion to $57 billion. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America have already begun layoffs, and analysts warn more cuts are likely if dealmaking doesn’t rebound soon.

Smaller firms like Evercore (-22%) and Jefferies (-21%) have seen steep stock declines, while JPMorgan (+3.5%) and Goldman Sachs (+1.3%) remain more stable. If revenues keep falling, banks may slash jobs or bonuses to control costs. For Wall Street bankers, the pressure is mounting—and time is running out.

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ENERGY
Big stakes on the table

BP is considering selling major stakes in two of its prized Gulf of Mexico projects, potentially reshaping its deepwater strategy. With a renewed focus on oil and gas after stepping back from clean energy, BP is exploring deals that could bring billions in fresh capital. The company may sell up to 50% of its Kaskida and Tiber projects, both crucial to its Gulf operations. While talks are in the early stages, industry players are eyeing these assets.

BP, a leading player in the Gulf, is streamlining its portfolio as it targets $20 billion in divestments by 2027 to cut its $23 billion debt. CEO Murray Auchincloss has signalled openness to lucrative offers, emphasizing value-driven decisions. If BP moves forward, the sales could reshape Gulf investments, fueling new partnerships while strengthening BP’s financial position for future energy expansion.

AI & TECHNOLOGY
A glimpse into digital repression

A leaked dataset has exposed China’s advanced AI-driven censorship system, revealing how artificial intelligence is being used to silence dissent at an unprecedented scale. From complaints about corruption to discussions in Taiwan, a sophisticated AI model has been trained on 133,000 examples to flag sensitive topics deemed a threat to government narratives. Unlike traditional keyword-based censorship, this AI system can detect nuanced criticism, political satire, and even coded language, making digital repression more efficient and pervasive.

With authoritarian regimes rapidly adopting AI for control, China’s censorship machine is evolving beyond simple filters, targeting not just blacklisted words but entire conversations. Security researchers discovered the dataset, confirming its use for “public opinion work,” a term linked to state propaganda efforts. As AI-driven censorship grows more advanced, the global conversation on digital freedom and surveillance intensifies. This revelation highlights the urgent need for transparency and safeguards against the misuse of AI in suppressing free speech.