iPhones Are Now Investment Assets

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Good morning, iPhones now cost as much as rent, oil’s on clearance in Asia, Meta dropped a beast nobody in Europe can use, and global trade just got a Trump-sized plot twist.

Happy Monday!

TARIFF
A global trade shake-up, Not a shutdown

Trump’s tariffs might bruise global trade, but they won’t break it. When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on America’s trading partners—his so-called “liberation day”—the world took notice. The move echoed Brexit: dramatic, divisive, and disruptive.

Trump’s action may look like a full retreat from globalism, but the world economy is more resilient than it seems. Even without its central player, free trade might just adapt and evolve. Like Britain after Brexit, the global economy will likely face years of turbulence. Yet trade has proven its worth time and again, and history suggests that countries will find a way forward—whether by cutting new deals or forging stronger regional alliances.

The numbers speak volumes: Trump’s tariffs reach up to 14% for Nigeria, and 10% for Kenya, Ghana, and even close allies like Britain. China fired back with 34% tariffs, while the EU has warned against cheap export dumping. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization expects global merchandise trade volume to drop 1% in 2025—a sharp 4-point downward revision. But the real concern? The erosion of economic balance between global giants like the U.S. and China. Experts warn that trade tensions could ignite broader geopolitical risks. As Professor Eswar Prasad notes, “This isn’t the end of free trade—but it’s certainly a major retreat.”

While Trump’s approach may unsettle global markets, don’t expect a retreat into economic isolation. Trade remains the engine of development, and countries—especially those hit hardest—will likely pivot, partner, and push forward. The U.S. may step back, but the rest of the world isn’t stepping down.

ECONOMY
How tariffs could turn your next upgrade into a luxury buy

A basic iPhone could soon cost as much as rent. Welcome to the era of tariff-fueled tech inflation — and Apple’s next big headache.

What happens when a trade war collides with one of the world’s most iconic gadgets? The answer may be sitting in your pocket. President Trump’s renewed tariffs on Chinese goods have left Apple staring down a pricing crisis — one that could reshape the iPhone’s market forever. With a 54% tariff on Chinese imports and no exemptions for Apple this time around, analysts now predict iPhone prices could rise by up to 43%. The entry-level iPhone 16, currently priced at $799, could soar to $1,142. The top-tier iPhone 16 Pro Max? Nearly $2,300.

That’s not just a hypothetical. Apple, which sells over 220 million iPhones annually, saw its stock plummet 9.3% on Thursday — its worst day since March 2020. Most of its phones are still made in China, and alternatives like India (26% tariff) and Vietnam (46% tariff) don’t offer much relief. While Apple consumers often rely on multi-year payment plans, even gradual price hikes could test their loyalty — especially with sales already stagnating due to underwhelming AI features in the latest models.

With analysts like Rosenblatt’s Barton Crockett warning of a potential $40 billion hit to Apple and CFRA’s Angelo Zino predicting only modest price flexibility (5–10%), the pressure is mounting. Unless exemptions are secured or Trump backs off, Apple may be forced into a lose-lose decision: absorb the costs or pass them on. Either way, your next iPhone may come with serious sticker shock — and Apple’s place in the global smartphone market could be permanently altered.

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ENERGY
Oil drops to 4-month low for Asia

Saudi Arabia just slashed oil prices for Asia to the lowest since late 2023, signalling a strategic shift in a tightening global market.

What’s behind this sudden drop? A surprise move from OPEC+ has stirred the barrel. Saudi Aramco cut May prices for Arab Light crude by $2.30 — now just $1.20 above Oman-Dubai benchmarks — and reduced April prices across other grades by the same margin.

The cut follows OPEC+’s unexpected decision to boost output by 411,000 barrels/day starting May. Meanwhile, Russian crude is flowing back into Asia, pushing spot Dubai premiums down from $3.33 to $1.38 in March. With supply rising and demand uncertain, expect more pricing plays and sharper market shifts in the months ahead.

AI & TECHNOLOGY
Meta’s llama 4 charges in

Meta just unleashed its most advanced AI models yet — and they’re not holding back on size, power, or politics. Why would Meta drop four new models on a weekend? Because the AI race is heating up a challenger from China lit a fire under their plans.

The Llama 4 collection — Scout, Maverick, and the upcoming Behemoth — uses cutting-edge Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture to push the limits on efficiency, scale, and responsiveness. Think 400B parameters, 10M token windows, and even performance exceeding GPT-4o on some benchmarks.

Scout is lightweight and document-savvy, running on a single H100 GPU. Maverick, made for general assistance and coding tasks, competes with top-tier models but trails giants like Gemini 2.5 Pro. Behemoth, still in training, could surpass GPT-4.5 and Claude 3.7 Sonnet on STEM reasoning, packing 2 trillion parameters. But Europe? Blocked by license terms. And companies with 700M+ users? Need special permission. Also notable: Meta tweaked Llama 4 to be less evasive on political and social questions — a move likely influenced by criticism from voices like Elon Musk and David Sacks about AI censorship and political bias.

With sharper reasoning, bigger windows, and a bolder stance on speech, Llama 4 isn’t just an upgrade — it’s Meta’s signal that the next AI wave is here, and they’re riding it loud, fast, and global (except the EU).