Germany’s Inflation Falls But Tariff Risks Rise

Good morning, Nothing like a fresh dose of economic chaos to start your day—tariffs might save America or just make everything more expensive, oil prices are playing seesaw with global tensions, and Apple thinks you need AI to figure out which notifications matter.

Embrace the day's wonders with joy!

TARIFF
Trump’s tariff gambit

A fierce debate is raging within Trump’s team: Will his new tariffs force foreign nations to lower trade barriers, or will they serve as a massive revenue generator for the U.S.?

Trump has declared April 2 “Liberation Day,” vowing to reset America’s trade relationships. His plan for reciprocal tariffs remains unclear—some advisers see it as a bargaining tool, while others push for steep, across-the-board tariffs to raise $6 trillion over a decade. But that revenue could come at a cost: economists warn it would drive up consumer prices, with auto tariffs alone adding $6,400 to new car costs and $500–$600 in extra expenses for American households.

The business community and lawmakers are split. Some Republicans back a “zero for zero” approach, eliminating tariffs if other countries do the same. Others want protectionist measures to boost domestic industries, even if it means higher costs. Meanwhile, countries like the U.K. and India are racing to negotiate exemptions. Trump’s trade adviser Peter Navarro insists tariffs will create jobs and strengthen national security. Critics warn they’ll fuel inflation and economic strain. With Trump’s announcement imminent, the big question looms—will tariffs be America’s leverage or its liability?

ECONOMY
Germany's inflation rate falls to 2.3%

German inflation fell to 2.3% in March, lower than expected, reinforcing bets on an ECB rate cut. But with U.S. tariffs on German cars looming and political shifts at home, the economic outlook remains uncertain. Inflation eased from February’s 2.6%, with core inflation at 2.5% and services inflation cooling to 3.4%. While this decline supports monetary easing, trade tensions could either push prices up due to supply disruptions or drive them down if surplus goods flood the market.

Meanwhile, Germany’s political landscape is shifting as coalition talks continue. A new fiscal package, including higher defence spending and a €500 billion infrastructure fund, could also influence economic stability. With inflation also dropping in Spain and France, eurozone figures are expected to come in at 2.2% for March. This adds pressure on the ECB to act, with markets now pricing in a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut on April 17.

ENERGY
Tariffs vs. Demand

Oil prices steadied near five-week highs as President Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs on Russian crude and military action against Iran kept markets on edge. The geopolitical tensions countered concerns over a global economic slowdown driven by trade wars. Brent crude hovered at $74.80 per barrel, with WTI at $71.52, after both benchmarks hit fresh highs. Analysts warn that while stricter sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could limit supply, U.S. tariffs and slowing demand in China and India might drag prices down.

Trump’s latest remarks, promising 25% to 50% tariffs on Russian oil buyers and potential strikes on Iran, raised fears of supply disruptions. Moscow’s biggest customers, China and India, would be hit hard if sanctions take effect, adding another layer of volatility to an already fragile market. Meanwhile, a standoff between Kazakhstan and OPEC+ over excess production led Russia to order the partial shutdown of Kazakhstan’s main oil export terminal, forcing output cuts. OPEC+ is set to review policy on April 5, with a 135,000 barrels-per-day production hike planned for May.

AI & TECHNOLOGY
Apple introduces priority notification

Apple Intelligence is stepping up its game. With the latest iOS 18.4, iPadOS 18.4, and macOS Sequoia 15.4 updates, Apple is rolling out Priority Notifications, a feature that helps users filter out the noise and focus on what truly matters. For months, Apple has been gradually introducing its AI-powered tools, and now, users in the EU and Vision Pro owners in the U.S. can finally experience Apple Intelligence. Alongside this, the AI suite now supports multiple new languages, including French, German, and Japanese.

Beyond smarter notifications, Apple Intelligence is bringing memory movie creation on Mac, an artistic Sketch style in Image Playground, and expanded generative AI features for Vision Pro.

Apple had initially delayed its AI rollout in the EU due to regulatory hurdles, but the wait is over. Meanwhile, iPhone and iPad users will also see new emojis and Apple News+ Food, a recipe companion, launching alongside child safety features and updates to Apple Photos. With Apple Intelligence growing steadily, users can expect even more AI-driven innovations to enhance their daily experience.